Economics as an Art of Thought: Essays in Memory of G.L.S. Shackle (英语) 平装
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美国亚马逊： 2 条评论
Michael Emmett Brady
Again,let me repeat:Keynesian probabilities are intervals2004年11月7日 - 已在美国亚马逊上发表
None of the authors in this book of collected essays appears to have any understanding that ,in general,probabilities for J M Keynes were essentially interval estimates.The same conclusion holds for G L S Shackle himself.Nowhere in any of Shackle's varied and diverse scholarship does he ever consider the possibility that Keynesian probabilities are mainly intervals.Finally, the same conclusion reached above holds for the author of the main essay on Shackle's views on probability,Jochen Runde.Runde writes under the influence of Frank P Ramsey and his two very poor reviews of Keynes's 1921 A Treatise on Probability(TP).Like Ramsey, Runde's assessment of Keynes's TP rests primarily on chapter 3 of the TP combined with chapters 4,6,26 and a few snippets taken from the rest of the other 29 chapters of the TP.Keynes intended chapter 3 of the TP to be an introductory chapter on the measurement of probabilities that would be accessible to a general reader who did not have any specialized knowledge of mathematics,probability,logic and statistics.However, Keynes clearly warned the specialist that only after reading Part II would Keynes's approach to the measurement of probabilities be completely developed.On p. 37 of the TP,Keynes states:"It will not be possible to explain in detail how and in what sense a meaning can sometimes be given to the numerical measurement of probabilities until Part II is reached".At the beginning of chapter 5 and the end of chapter 10 Keynes repeats this warning.Unfortunately,no economist or philosopher took Keynes at his word and studied what it was that Keynes was doing in Part II of the TP.Instead,in its place, economists and philosophers accepted the error filled claims made by Ramsey about"Keynes's mysterious nonnumerical probabilities and degrees of belief."Naturally,the one exception was Bertrand Russell,who recognized the weak nature of both of Ramsey's reviews.It is in chapters 15,17,20 and 22 that Keynes developed and then applied his "inexact numerical approximation" technique ,involving probabilities with both upper and lower bounds or limits,to the study of analogy and induction in Part III of the TP.None of the essays in this book deal with or mention Keynes's monumental accomplishment.Keynes is the first scholar in history to put forth a clearcut mathematical technique to provide interval estimates.Keynes's approach was based on the original work of George Boole.Keynes also mentioned other approaches that could be used to specify his nonnumerical probabilities(intervals)in chapters 5 and 15 of the TP.
S. F. Frowen
No title2005年8月20日 - 已在美国亚马逊上发表
As the co-editor of the book 'Economics as an Art of Thought', I should like you to know that your information is wrong in stating that the book was co-edited by Stephan Boehm and John Pheby. Instead the only two editors of 'Economics as an art of Thought', published by Routledge in 2000 (with subsequent new editions), are Peter E. Earl and Stephen F. Frowen.