The Age of Turbulence (Asian Export Edition) [精装]

美国联邦准备理事会前主席葛林斯潘，对世界金融市场的影响力仍举足轻重。九一一事件的冲击也让他看清，我们已然处于更弹性、变动更快速的动荡新世界。本书分为两部分，前半回顾一生，从孩提到联准会十八年的任期；后半则是淬炼其智识与洞见，以之解释全球化的趋势。

由本书高达八百五十万美金的版税即可推知它的重要性。

葛林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）从1987年开始担任美国联邦准备理事会主席，甫于2006年1月退休。他在世界金融圈呼风唤雨，影响力无人能及，是全球最有权势的人士之一。国际媒体对他推崇备至，人人视他为英雄与远见者、也是史上最棒的经济学家之一，但也有人批评他每每发言影响金融市场、干扰经济。

1987年，他担任联准会主席不久之后发生了股灾，造成全球经济风暴及恐慌；在这样的前车之鉴下，911事件发生之后，他立即着手准备相关的应变措施，避免严重的经济衰退、意图将911事件的经济冲击降到最低；但没想到在911事件之后，什么事也没有发生！在 911事件之后， Greenspan认知到了全球资本经济环境已经和二十年前大不相同，更加开放、弹性、自主，而变化快速，带给人们前所未有的诸多机会。在本书中，Greenspan以他自身的经验，带领读者检视了这个新经济世界的本质。他从911事件发生的早晨开始谈起，并回顾了他的童年时期对他后来人生的影响。在书中他也谈到了在他十八年的美国联准会主席任期中所经历的转变。

本书是 Greenspan 的自传性质作品。在本书的前半段，Greenspan分享了他的经验，在这一个绝无仅有的经济环境中，他经历了、又创造了什么，Geenspan 为读者描绘出他所经历的学习曲线、分享他当前经济的了解，让读者可以更快抓住这个驱使世界不断变化的动态环境。而在本书的后半，Geenspan则是为读者介绍了了解全球经济最重要的概念工具：他举出经济成长的共通点、探究各个主要地区及国家所发生的特殊事件、并解释了今后全球化的趋势导向。

作者将其一生的智慧学识和观察浓缩在这本书之中，传达他一以贯之的世界价值观，本书将成为 Geenspan 送给人类社会最珍贵的智慧遗产。

Book Description
In the immediate aftermath of September 11, 2001, in his fourteenth year as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, Alan Greenspan took part in a very quiet collective effort to ensure that America didn't experience an economic meltdown, taking the rest of the world with it. There was good reason to fear the worst: the stock market crash of October 1987, his first major crisis as Federal Reserve Chairman, coming just weeks after he assumed control, had come much closer than is even today generally known to freezing the financial system and triggering a genuine financial panic. But the most remarkable thing that happened to the economy after 9/11 was...nothing. What in an earlier day would have meant a crippling shock to the system was absorbed astonishingly quickly.

After 9/11 Alan Greenspan knew, if he needed any further reinforcement, that we're living in a new world - the world of a global capitalist economy that is vastly more flexible, resilient, open, self-directing, and fast-changing than it was even 20 years ago. It's a world that presents us with enormous new possibilities but also enormous new challenges. The Age of Turbulence is Alan Greenspan's incomparable reckoning with the nature of this new world - how we got here, what we're living through, and what lies over the horizon, for good and for ill-channeled through his own experiences working in the command room of the global economy for longer and with greater effect than any other single living figure. He begins his account on that September 11th morning, but then leaps back to his childhood, and follows the arc of his remarkable life's journey through to his more than 18-year tenure as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, from 1987 to 2006, during a time of transforming change.

Alan Greenspan shares the story of his life first simply with an eye toward doing justice to the extraordinary amount of history he has experienced and shaped. But his other goal is to draw readers along the same learning curve he followed, so they accrue a grasp of his own understanding of the underlying dynamics that drive world events. In the second half of the book, having brought us to the present and armed us with the conceptual tools to follow him forward, Dr. Greenspan embarks on a magnificent tour de horizon of the global economy. He reveals the universals of economic growth, delves into the specific facts on the ground in each of the major countries and regions of the world, and explains what the trend-lines of globalization are from here. The distillation of a life's worth of wisdom and insight into an elegant expression of a coherent worldview, The Age of Turbulence will stand as Alan Greenspan's personal and intellectual legacy.

A Timeline of a Remarkable Career

Mar. 6, 1926 　　　　　　　　Born in New York City
1936 　　　　　　　　　　　　At 10 sees Roosevelt campaigning; becomes expert on the 1936 Yankees
1938 　　　　　　　　　　　 Takes up clarinet at 12
1943-44 　　　　　　　　　　 Studies clarinet at Julliard
Mid 1944 　　　　　　　　　　Joins Henry Jerome Band
1948 　　　　　　　　　　　　Graduates (summa cum laude) from New York University. (He later earns a master's in 1950 and a Ph.D. in 1977, also from NYU.) Hired as economic analyst at the Conference Board.
1954-74 　　　　　　　　　　　Co-founds Townsend-Greenspan & Co. Inc., an economic consulting firm in New York City. (He returns in 1977.)
1974 　　　　　　　　　　　　Nominated by President Ford as chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisors.
1983 　 　　　　　　　　　　　Chair of bipartisan National Commission on Social Security Reform.
June 1, 1987 　　　　　　　　Nominated by President Reagan for Fed Chair. Confirmed by Senate August 3.
Oct. 19, 1987 　　　　　　　　Only 69 days into Greenspan's term, the Dow drops 508 points and 22%.
July 10, 1991 　　　　　　　Nominated by President George H.W. Bush to a second term as Fed Chairman. Later nominated to a third (February 22, 1996) and fourth term (January 4, 2000) by President Clinton.
Apr. 6, 1997 　　　　　　　Marries Andrea Mitchell
May 18, 2004 Nominated by President George W. Bush for a fifth term as Fed chairman
Jan. 31, 2006 　　　　　　Completes 18 ? years at the Fed
Feb. 1, 2006 　　　　　　Forms Greenspan Associates LLC, an economic consulting firm

Alan Greenspan's Amazon Blog
11:05 AM PDT, August 31, 2007

I started thinking about what was to become “The Age of Turbulence” two years ago. My nearly two decades as Federal Reserve Chairman were coming to an end - a remarkable experience. After a lifetime observing how the world works as a business economist on Wall Street, it was exhilarating to be at the center of international monetary policymaking. Sure, I’d been President Ford’s White House economic advisor in the mid-1970s, but nothing fully prepared me for what I faced when President Reagan nominated me Fed Chairman in June 1987. So, in the waning months of my Fed tenure, I started getting excited about having time to stand back and think about all I’d been through – the frightening stock market crash of 1987, the boom of the 1990s, the trauma of 9/11, the climactic end of the Cold War, all told, a cascade of events propelling a new world forward at warp speed.

There was also a personal story to tell. I’d known every president from Richard Nixon to Reagan, Ford, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. And what about all those other assorted characters from my childhood in New York, my years as a jazz musician, my complete career switch to economics – and my friendship with Ayn Rand? I wanted to make the leap from writing economic analysis to writing in the first person about what I’d experienced. And after years of talking “Fedspeak” in carefully calibrated congressional testimony – I could finally use my own voice!

As I wrote “The Age of Turbulence,” I tackled the personal part first, but then started unraveling the detective story about the economy: what did all the economic shifts we began to detect in the late nineties mean? At the Fed, I had at first focused primarily on monetary policy – interest rates and the forces that determined their appropriate levels. But as the years rolled on, it became increasingly clear to me that we needed to understand an entirely new range of factors to implement policy effectively. I had had inklings of this new world, of course, but as I raced from one policy meeting to another, I never had time to sit back and think about all this. Was this a permanent change or just another technological evolution that would, with time, come to an end? Would the growing income inequality that seemed to be associated with this new paradigm create a backlash to the forces of globalization? And wasn’t this a dangerous trend for our democracy?

My term as Federal Reserve Chairman ended at midnight, January 31, 2006. The following morning, I started to write. You would think after all those years at the Fed and my earlier decades as an economist that I would have learned about as much as I could. But halfway through the book I realized that the story was leading me in surprising directions. I needed to refocus much of what I had written in my original drafts.

The final chapter was to forecast how I thought the world would work in the year 2030. But until I spent a year researching and writing and thinking about “The Age of Turbulence,” I had little idea how it would turn out. In fact, I was having so much fun rethinking some of my earlier assumptions, I was as anxious to read it as I hope my readers will be. In the end, I can confidently say writing that final chapter brought me—and the book—closure. It is not the grand finale of Beethoven’s Ninth, but for me, it hit the right chord.

Book Dimension
length: (cm)23.6 　　　 　　　　　 　　　　　 width:(cm)15.8

Customer Reviews
1. A central Banker reminisces, comments on present turbulence and reflects on the future, 27 Sep 2007
　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　By Serghiou Const (Nicosia, Cyprus)
Alan Greenspan as chairman of the Federal Reserve for almost two decades was at 'the commanding heights' of policy making in the world's most powerful economy. During his tenure the American Economy enjoyed remarkably good health which contributed to the almost iconic status of the author.

Interestingly for a banker, the book is excellent in that it is both intelligently written and pleasantly read. On occasions it is lively and candid. In this regard the author criticises President Bush for not exercising restraint in public spending while asserting that the Iraq war was largely about oil.

The first half of the book comprise reminiscences of the author while in the balance he reflects on the main economic issues which will confront governments in the decades to come.

The author relates America's economic history since the 1950s through his experience in business and in government and at the Federal Reserve Board. He comments on America's Presidents from Nixon to Bush and British Prime Ministers from Margaret Thatcher to Tony Blair.

Compared to only twenty years ago, the new financial world is turbulent - hence the title of the book - more flexible, resilient, open and fast changing.

Reflecting on the future the author speculates on China's prospects, Russia's prospects, Latin America's prospects, demographics, corporate governance, inequality, energy and the like.

Mr Greenspan has been criticised for not acting pre-emptively by keeping interest rates low for too long and thus precipitating bubbles in the stockmarket and real estate. He acknowledges the criticism but maintains his stance.

This popular book should appeal to a wide readership interested in World Economics

2. Surprisingly good, 17 Nov 2007
　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　By Thomas Koetzsch (Hong Kong)

Alan Greenspan was an icon amongst central Bankers. During his tenor he mastered quite a few major upheavals including the 1987 stock market crash, 1989, 9/11, to name but a few. With his cryptic style of commenting on the US economy he single-handedly created the `what did Alan Greenspan say and what did he mean by that' industry.

In this book you will find very few cryptic remarks. Instead it is written in an understandable style, which is not normally associated with members of the banking profession.

The book comes in two parts. In Part One (chapters 1 to 11), Mr. Greenspan recounts his life from birth right through to the end of his tenor as the Fed's Chairman in 2006. His early years are dealt with rather quickly. The more interesting bit starts in the 1950's as Greenspan starts his career as an analyst. At that point the books is no longer really a memoir but a course in American economic history. I also liked his observations and opinions on all US Presidents from Nixon to the present occupant of the White House.

Part Two (chapters 12 to 25) are a collection of Mr. Greenspan's thoughts on various aspects of the world economy. In detail, he covers virtually all important economic powers and regions in the world telling us how their economic growth has been driven in the past and what they must do in future to ensure increasing prosperity. Many a politician would be well advised to take note of what Mr. Greenspan has to say, but there is scant chance of that happening.
He also covers the debt markets, globalisation and regulation, equality, pensions, corporate governance and the energy squeeze.
Finally, Mr. Greenspan looks into the future of the US economy and other major global players. The title of his book gives us an idea as to what might be in store for us.

This is an excellent book although I personally prefer the second part over the first part. This is not a book for economic addicts, but it is for everyone with an interest in economic matters.

3. A book of two halves, 5 Nov 2007
　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　By Tom Rubython (London)
The first half of the book is an autobiography and all that one might expect for one of the great economists/financial gurus of the 20th and 21st century. It is also a history lesson on some 60 years of financial and economic process and observation more or less told from the inside. That makes it totally unique. In short the first half of the book is a gripping, absorbing and fascinating read.
The second half of this book is far less readable as a multi-part economics lecture (really for economics addicts only). Nonetheless I am sure is of very high quality but of which I, and I suspect many readers, will not have the patience or be able to sustain the interest levels to be able to read it.

For that reason there is no real ending to the autobiograpihical part which simply peters out with little satisfaction for the reader.

However that is no reason not to read this book which I would say was essential reading for anyone who reads the Wall Street Journal or Financial Times regularly. It is also very enjoyable (the first half anyway).